Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’ Box Office Tracking For A $40 Million Opening

Box office tracking forChristopher Nolan’s World War II movieDunkirksuggests an opening weekend in the $30 to $40 million range. This would make it Nolan’s lowest opening for a wide release since 2006.

It is important to note however, that these are early estimates, with the film not slated to open in theaters for another two weeks, so numbers are bound to change up until its release.

Dunkirkis projected to open to about $40 million at the box office, according to early industry tracking estimates reported byVariety.

This would make it Nolan’s lowest opening for a wide release sinceThe Prestigehauled in $14.8 million in its opening weekend. To be fair, his past releases have been either big budget spectacles revolving around a certain Dark Knight, while his much-anticipated original releases likeInterstellarorInceptionboasted big name stars like Matthew McConaughey or Leonardo DiCaprio. WhileDunkirkfeatures some Nolan regulars who are fairly well-known actors like Tom Hardy and Cillian Murphy, the film is centered around unknown starFionn Whiteheadand other newcomers. It’s a very British-centric movie at that, boasting a cast of established British actors as well telling the story of a World War II battle that few Americans know about but plenty of British schoolkids do.

Dunkirkfaces stiff competition on its opening weekend, with Luc Besson’sValerianand the City of a Thousand Planetsreleasing at the same time, andSpider-Man: Homecominghitting theaters two weeks before it.War for the Planet of the Apesis sure to do big numbers in the week beforeDunkirkas well, which may affect estimates. But Nolan’s big name and the draw of One Direction boybander Harry Styles may be enough to giveDunkirksome box office clout.

War movies tend to do moderately well at the box office. According to Variety,Saving Private Ryan, for all its buzz, opened to merely $30.6 million (it went on to become the second highest grossing movie of 1988). High-earning war films tend to open around the $30 to $50 million range, such as 2001’sPearl Harborat $59.1 million, andInglourious Basterdswith $38.1 million.

Dunkirkwill be thewidest opening in 70MM theatersin 25 years, with 125 theaters showing the World War II film in the format.

Here’s the synopsis forDunkirkbelow:

In May 1940, Germany advanced into France, trapping Allied troops on the beaches of Dunkirk. Under air and ground cover from British and French forces, troops were slowly and methodically evacuated from the beach using every serviceable naval and civilian vessel that could be found. At the end of this heroic mission, 330,000 French, British, Belgian and Dutch soldiers were safely evacuated.

Dunkirkstars newcomersFionn Whitehead, Tom Glynn-Carney, Jack Lowden, and former One Direction memberHarry Stylesmaking his acting debut. The cast is rounded out by established stars and frequent Nolan collaborators includingCillian Murphy, Mark Rylance, Tom Hardy, Kenneth Branagh,andJames D’Arcy.Dunkirkhits theaters onJuly 21.